A strategic planning method that creates multiple plausible future scenarios to help organizations prepare for various possible outcomes. It involves developing detailed stories about how different trends and uncertainties might unfold to inform decision-making.
From Italian 'scenario' (theatrical scene) derived from Latin 'scena,' combined with planning. The strategic business application was pioneered by Shell Oil in the 1970s, evolving from military strategic planning techniques developed during WWII.
The magic of scenario planning isn't predicting the future - it's expanding your mental models of what's possible! Companies that do this well often spot opportunities and threats earlier because they've already imagined multiple ways the world could unfold, making them more adaptable when change actually happens.
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